Proofs Analyzed by Grades
The following estimates are based upon mathematical extrapolations of NGC and PCGS population data as of July 1992. While I have made some suppositions, and while certification service data do not tell the entire story, still the results are meaningful, in my opinion. The assumption is made that more resubmissions exist among higher grades such as Proof-64 and 65. The assumption is also made that proportionately fewer coins in the Proof-60 to 63 grade have been submitted, as the values are lower. Hence, the multiplier is higher for the lower grades, to reflect coins not submitted. As time goes on and more coins are submitted to the grading services, future studies will have to reduce the multipliers, for more coins certified in the future will not mean that more coins are known to exist.
In addition to these figures, some impaired Proofs (grades below Proof-60) are known of each date.
The formulas used:
Proof-60 to 62: For the years 1873 through 1877 the number of coins certified is multiplied by 5. Of course, this is arbitrary, but it seems to fit in with the relative number of examples I have observed in various grades over the years. To estimate the number known today of Proofs dated from 1878 through 1883, the number of coins certified is multiplied by 3. As the 1878-1883 years are Proof-only pieces, I believe that the certification rate is higher than for trade dollars of the earlier years.
Proof-63: To estimate the number known today, the number of coins certified is multiplied by 2.5.
Proof-64: To estimate the number known today, the number of coins certified is multiplied by 2.
Proof-65: To estimate the number known today, the number of coins certified is multiplied by 2.
This formula yields the following results:
1873
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 43. Multiplied by 5 = 215 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 31. Multiplied by 2.5 = 77 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 19. Multiplied by 2 = 38 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 9. Multiplied by 2 = 18 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 102
Total Proofs estimated to exist: 348
Proof mintage: 600 (my estimate) 865 per the Guide Book
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 58% of 600; 40% of 865
1874
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 42. Multiplied by 5 = 210 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 40. Multiplied by 2.5 = 100 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 51. Multiplied by 2 = 102 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 6. Multiplied by 2 = 12 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 139
Total Proofs estimated to exist: 424
Proof mintage: 700
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 61%
1875
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 37. Multiplied by 5 = 185 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 67. Multiplied by 2.5 = 167 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 54. Multiplied by 2 = 108 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 17. Multiplied by 2 = 34 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 175
Total Proofs estimated to exist: 494
Proof mintage: 700
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 70%
1876
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 68. Multiplied by 5 = 340 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 47. Multiplied by 2.5 = 117 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 32. Multiplied by 2 = 64 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 17. Multiplied by 2 = 34 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 164
Total Proofs estimated to exist: 555
Proof mintage: 1,150
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 48%
1877
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 38. Multiplied by 5 = 190 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 48. Multiplied by 2.5 = 120 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 62. Multiplied by 2 = 124 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 22. Multiplied by 2 = 44 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 170
Total Proofs estimated to exist: 478
Proof mintage: 710 (or 510?—a figure I doubt)
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 67% of 710; 94% of 510
1878
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 42. Multiplied by 3 = 126 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 71. Multiplied by 2.5 = 177 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 66. Multiplied by 2 = 132 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 25. Multiplied by 2 = 50 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 204
Total Proofs estimated to exist: 485
Proof mintage: 900
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 54%
1879
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 106. Multiplied by 3 = 318 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 113. Multiplied by 2.5 = 282 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 104. Multiplied by 2 = 208 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 69. Multiplied by 2 = 138 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 392
Total Proofs estimated to exist: 946
Proof mintage: 1,541
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 61%
1880
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 115. Multiplied by 3 = 345 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 125. Multiplied by 2.5 = 312 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 161. Multiplied by 2 = 322 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 106. Multiplied by 2 = 212 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 507
Total Proofs estimated to exist: 1,191
Proof mintage: 1,987
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 60%
1881
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 66. Multiplied by 3 = 198 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 85. Multiplied by 2.5 = 212 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 117. Multiplied by 2 = 234 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 61. Multiplied by 2 = 122 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 329
Total Proofs estimated to exist: 766
Proof mintage: 960
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 80%
1882
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 95. Multiplied by 2 = 190 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 96. Multiplied by 2.5 = 240 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 131. Multiplied by 2 = 262 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 72. Multiplied by 2 = 144 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 394
Total Proofs estimated to exist: 706
Proof mintage: 1,097
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 64%
1883
Proof-60 to 62 coins certified: 69. Multiplied by 3 = 207 estimated to exist.
Proof-63 coins certified: 72. Multiplied by 2.5 = 180 estimated to exist.
Proof-64 coins certified: 110. Multiplied by 2 = 220 estimated to exist.
Proof-65 or better coins certified: 55. Multiplied by 2 = 110 estimated to exist.
Grand total of Proof coins certified: 306
Total Proofs estimated to exist: 717
Proof mintage: 979
% of Proof mintage estimated to exist today: 73%